WD4 Forecast local weather conditions

Suggested time: 3-5 hours

Learning Objectives

1. Examine the principles of weather prediction and predict local weather conditions, using qualitative and quantitative methods. (NUM)
   
2. Determine the accuracy of local weather predictions for a given period. (CCT)
   
3. Analyze why scientific and technological activities such as meteorology take place in a variety of individual and group settings. (TL)
   
4. Identify the ways in which technology has improved weather forecasting.
   
5. Explore various cultural and historical perspectives related to weather forecasting.
   
6. Understand the fundamentals of probability and their uses in expressing risks and changes, and making predictions. (NUM)
   
7. Understand the benefits and limitations of technological tools used to predict weather. (TL)
   

Enrichment Learning Objectives

1. Discuss the role of weather predictions for the agricultural sector in Saskatchewan .
   
2. Identify other sectors of the economy, or specific jobs that rely on or are influenced by weather forecasts.
   

Key Questions

1. Why is it important to predict weather?
   
2. What methods and tools do meteorologists use to generate their predictions?
   
3. What is the impact of weather forecasts on various segments of society?
   

Key Concepts

• A weather balloon is a helium-filled balloon that carries weather instruments aloft.
  
• A weather satellite is an orbiting craft that detects light and infrared radiation from the Earth and then relays that data to ground stations.
  
• Weather radar is a ground-based system that emits microwaves that in turn are reflected back when they hit a solid or liquid object such as precipitation.
  
• Doppler radar is a device used to determine how fast an object is moving towards or away from the radar site as well as the actual speed of the object.
  
• Science uses predictions to determine future outcomes on the basis of previous information.
  
• Science does not make absolute predictions such as a weather forecast.
  
• Probability is the relative degree of certainty that can be assigned to certain events happening in a specified time interval or within a specific sequence of events.
  
• The nature of scientific knowledge and the methods of generating scientific knowledge is different from other forms of knowledge.
  

Pre-Instructional Questions

1. Do students show interest in predicting the weather?
   
2. Do students regularly consult and believe in the value of weather reports?
   
3. Do students understand which criteria meteorologists use for their predictions?
   
4. Are students familiar with various culturally-based weather sayings?
   
5. Do students understand why some sectors of the economy depend on weather forecasts?
   

Suggested Teaching Strategies and Activities

1. Students should develop weather forecasts for the region, using either students' own primary data or secondary data from print or on-line sources. Students should examine this data to locate fronts (cold, warm, stationary, occluded), pressure systems, cloud cover, and the jet stream. Students need to identify whether the fronts and pressure systems are moving, how fast they are moving, and in what direction they are moving. Students should also note changes to the jet stream and cloud cover. Students can then combine this information with their understanding of general weather patterns for the Prairies in order to create one-day, three-day, and five-day forecasts for the region. Students could share forecasts and assess each other's accuracy, along with the overall quality of weather forecasting. While assessing each other's work, students should demonstrate appropriate examples of giving and receiving feedback. (IL, NUM, CD 1.3)
   
   
2. Students should collect weather forecasts for a specified region (local community, Saskatchewan , Western Canada, Canada ) for a three to five-day period. Students should compare the forecasts with observed conditions and suggest reasons why the forecasts were or were not accurate. Students may also compare the accuracy of forecasts from different resources (e.g., newspaper, television, radio, Environment Canada, Old Farmer's Almanac, etc. ). (IL)
   
   
3. Weather forecasters state certain types of weather predictions along with a percentage (e.g., a 20% chance of precipitation tomorrow). Students could determine why forecasters assign these percentages, how these percentages are determined, and what these percentages signify. This would be an appropriate time to discuss the probabilistic nature of scientific predictions. (CCT, NUM)
   
   
4. Students could discuss the reasons that meteorologists rely on multiple sources of data for weather forecasting. Students should explain how the accuracy of weather forecasting increases with data from multiple sources. Students might also explore ways in which the public is able to contribute to weather observations. The "Skywatchers" program at Environment Canada is an example of such a program designed specifically for students across Canada .
   
   
5. Students could research the development of weather forecasting technologies from early times through the Renaissance and into our modern society. Students' research might include examining the importance of weather forecasting in these various eras. Students might also consider predicting future technologies for weather forecasting. (CCT, TL)
   
   
6. Students could examine weather folklore, expressions, artwork, or rituals from different cultures and identify similarities and differences in the sayings, expressions, rhymes, stories, or proverbs that relate to weather forecasting. Students might also look for similarities and differences in the ways that various cultures attribute control of the Sun, moon, winds, rain, snow, and other weather features to the actions of spirits and gods. Students should recognize the relationship between culture and lifestyle, exploring how culture can influence the views and opinions of people. Students should recognize that there are different worldviews, some of which are not reflective of modern Eurocentric scientific views. (PSD, CD 9.3)
   
   
7. Most cultures have common sayings or proverbs related to predicting weather. For example: "Evening red and morning gray, Two sure signs of one fine day", and "Ring around the moon? Rain real soon". Students could choose one or two sayings and research the scientific principles behind these sayings, if any exist.
   
   
8. Students could select two or three weather expressions and test their accuracy over an extended period. Students could discuss the value of weather expressions in predicting weather and suggest why most cultures have weather-related folklore. Students might want to consult elders or grandparents as a resource.